Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Florida: A Must-Win State for Bush

October 22nd, 2004, 3:30am by Sam Wang


At Slate, Will Saletan points out that based on Bush’s travels, his campaign may consider Florida more of a must-win state than Ohio. Looking at today’s decided-only numbers, this has merit. If Bush takes Ohio his win probability is 72%, but if he loses then this drops to 40% – not even a twofold difference. However, Florida is different. If Bush wins Florida, his win probability is 88%; if he loses, it’s only 20%. To show why this is, Saletan describes electoral scenarios involving smaller states (WI, IA, NV, NM) that Bush could cobble together to make up for the loss of Ohio.

Tags: 2004 Election

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