Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Voting for Nader

October 15th, 2004, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

Colorado Democratic Senate candidate Ken Salazar has come out clearly against Amendment 36, the electoral vote splitting initiative. It seems likely to fail.

I have been asked to evaluate a tactical-voting idea proposed by Nader supporters, The idea is for swing state voters to agree to change their Nader vote in exchange for a vote change in a non-swing state. Nader is a much smaller factor this year than in 2000, but it is still worth considering how much value you get for your trade. (This relies on the same calculation that I did on Wednesday the 13th to ask where you should get out the vote.)

Regarding Nader: Today the NY Times says that Nader is a threat to the Democrats. Possibly, but this is not supported by the data! In the nine states listed in the article, I looked at 20 polls since October 1 with both two-way results (Kerry-Bush) and three-way results (Kerry-Bush-Nader). Nader does not change the outcome in any of these – and several are ties.

Tags: 2004 Election

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