Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from October 30th, 2004

First Reaction to FOX News

October 30th, 2004, 5:30pm by Sam Wang

That was a fascinating experience. So much was left out but I did get to say my piece. After we cut, the FOX guy asked me what I really thought would happen. I said I thought Kerry would get over 300 electoral votes. Of course this happened afterwards. Typical television – very compressed. Real analysis [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

WV Mistake Corrected

October 30th, 2004, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Update comes later. Thanks to readers for pointing out the WV mistake (it should be solidly red). The calculation and maps above are updated to correct this error; the bias calculations have to wait until later. I must now go and get duded up for the FOX News thing (tune in, 2:45PM Eastern)…

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Tags: 2004 Election

Mean Reversion; Zogby on The Daily Show

October 29th, 2004, 11:30pm by Sam Wang

After due consideration, I need to stick with using the mean in order to be consistent with previous analyses. Thanks for your patience – that’s what you get for a project that is essentially open-source – that is, I shoot first and take your feedback later. In retrospect the best approach might have been to [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

FOX News Appearance

October 29th, 2004, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Tune in to FOX News on Saturday (tomorrow) around 2:45PM, when I am scheduled to talk about the meta-analysis. I am traveling today until evening, so the next update may be late in coming. If nothing shows up in the next four hours, check back late tonight. I also hope to have the briefing sheet [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

More Letters

October 28th, 2004, 8:15pm by Sam Wang

More letters.

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Tags: 2004 Election

Rumor: Kerry +9 in Florida?

October 28th, 2004, 3:00pm by Sam Wang

Edward Witten writes, “On mydd.com, I read yesterday a rumor that a NYT poll of Florida showing Kerry ahead by +9 percent was buried as being implausible. I don’t know if the rumor is true, and if it is I am sure the poll was flawed, as Kerry is surely not leading Florida by that [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

More Letters; Bush Returns to Ohio

October 28th, 2004, 9:45am by Sam Wang

Since posting a few letters here I have received many more. Here are some selected from yesterday’s mail, October 27. Of special interest is one from Jim G. from New Hampshire, an undecided voter. He is articulate and thoughtful, and though we don’t agree on a few things I strongly recommend his letter to all [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

The Vagaries of Opinion Polling

October 27th, 2004, 5:30pm by Sam Wang

A brief note on the vagaries of opinion polling. When we read polls we often make the implicit assumption that people report what is really going on inside their heads. However, this is a subjective report. The famous example in these closing days is the “undecided voter.” But are these people undecided in the sense [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

Probability of an Electoral Tie

October 27th, 2004, 12:30pm by Sam Wang

My regular email address works once again. Send your correspondence there. Charles Cullen writes asking today’s probability of a 269-269 electoral tie. Using decided voters only it’s 3.9% – a lot! With the undecideds assumption it’s 0.4%. In this scenario the newly elected House and Senate would determine the president and vice-president, leading to Bush-Cheney [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

Selected Reader Leaders

October 27th, 2004, 7:00am by Sam Wang

One of the pleasures of running a popular Web site is the correspondence. Click here for some selected letters from the last few days of various types – illuminating, entertaining, and unintentionally hilarious.

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Tags: 2004 Election