Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Sharpening The 2016 Presidential Forecast

August 21st, 2016, 2:47am by Sam Wang


Today I present a beta version of the sharpened forecast. In May, I said that I would update the model after the dynamics of this year’s race became clear. Back then, I wondered whether the 2016 campaign would be more like 1952-1992 (high variability), or like 1996-2012 (low variability). This year’s data indicate that it is the latter – opinion is relatively stable. That stability affects the November forecast.

This is an open comment period. Technical feedback is welcome. (The comments section is rather good this time.) [Read more →]

→ 91 CommentsTags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

Politics & Polls #8: How To Interpret Polls

August 18th, 2016, 9:36pm by Sam Wang


On Politics & Polls (SoundCloud, PodOmatic, and the slower-to-update iTunes): Julian Zelizer and I offer up a basic primer on how to make sense of the onslaught of polls. What should we think of a really surprising result? Are polling numbers twisting and turning with every week’s news…or are polls the best empirical measure we can count on in a crazy year? Want to learn a trick for aggregating polls that is so simple that it does not even involve arithmetic? All this and more…listen now!

→ 23 CommentsTags: 2016 Election

In state polls, Clinton running 5.8 percentage points ahead of Obama 2012

August 16th, 2016, 5:41pm by Sam Wang


There is a lot of media drooling over polls showing Donald Trump cratering in state after state. I find this gloating to be unseemly. Here at PEC, you can do all your gloating in one go, saving time for other reactions, like schadenfreude.

Plotted below are median Clinton-minus-Trump margins in all states for which August polling is available, plotted against Obama-over-Romney margins at the same point in the 2012 campaign. This horizontal axis quantity is better to plot than the final Obama-Romney election margins, which include undecided voters’ final commitments – not a fair comparison.

The data come from RealClearPolitics.

Clinton is overperforming Obama in 15 out of 17 states, the significant exceptions [Read more →]

→ 104 CommentsTags: 2012 Election · 2016 Election · President

What do polls and neuroscience have in common?

August 16th, 2016, 10:43am by Sam Wang


Find out in a profile published yesterday on the University’s homepage. Bonus: it may be the only time you will ever find the cerebellum and gerrymandering mentioned in the same article.

→ 5 CommentsTags: 2014 Election

Today on The Takeaway: Who Is Evan McMullin, And Why Is He Really Running for President?

August 15th, 2016, 8:15am by Sam Wang


Today on The Takeaway, I discuss the impact of Evan McMullin’s entry into the Presidential race. His biggest effect will be downticket, where control of Congress is in the balance. The basic evidence: McMullin is a House GOP staffer, not a politician; and for every 1% of Republican turnout that he can salvage, they can recover up to six House seats – which could be crucial in determining control. As of this weekend, McMullin will be on the ballot in Colorado and Minnesota, where six swing districts are on the line (CO-03, CO-06, MN-01, MN-02, MN-03, and MN-08).

The show airs nationwide at various times starting at 9:00am Eastern. Find a radio station near you, or listen to it here.

Incidentally, activists on both sides are turning their attention to downticket races. Democrats, see ActBlue. Republicans, see the NRSC.

→ 22 CommentsTags: 2016 Election

Get PEC pushed to your mobile!

August 13th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang


The Princeton Election Consortium is partnering with StatX to bring to you a way to get our data updates automatically. The StatX app can provide you with all the key outputs on our calculations, updated five times a day: the EV snapshot, current Senate and House estimates, and the Meta-Margins. The app will link back to this website so you can get full site content.

You will need the free StatX app on your iPhone or Android (or search statx in Apple App Store or Google Play Store). Give it a try! Send any StatX-related suggestions and feedback to feedback@statx.io. Below, some answers regarding privacy concerns… [Read more →]

→ 17 CommentsTags: 2016 Election · Site News

Housekeeping: probabilities and thresholds

August 12th, 2016, 12:09pm by Sam Wang


I am trying out a new rounding rule on the Clinton win probability. Now rounding it to nearest 1%, not 5%. Gives you something to look at – along with the big jump in the Meta-Margin.

For the generic Congressional preference, the displayed threshold for flipping the House is now set to Democrats +6% to +8%. That estimate is fairly rough, as detailed below. I am also experimenting with the graph format. It displays every Nth day of the median. Before, N=7; now I am trying N=3.

→ 35 CommentsTags: 2016 Election

What would it take for the House to flip?

August 12th, 2016, 8:00am by Sam Wang


As I wrote recently, the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan (R), has raised the possibility that his party could lose its majority in November. This fear can account for a variety of recent political events, including the entry into the presidential race of a total unknown who just happens to be the policy director of the House Republican caucus.

To take control of the House, Democrats need to gain at least 30 seats over their current 188 seats. This is a tall order, but not impossible. A change of this size has happened in two out of the last five Congressional elections: a 31-seat gain for Democrats in 2006, and a 63-seat gain by Republicans in 2010. In the modern era of polarization, 1994-2014, a change of that size has happened in 3 out of 11 elections. Since 1946, it has happened in 10 out of 35 elections.

What would it take for the House to change hands? [Read more →]

→ 45 CommentsTags: 2016 Election · House

Politics & Polls #7: The Coattail Effect, Gerrymandering & Third-Party Candidates

August 11th, 2016, 2:00pm by Sam Wang


On Politics & Polls (iTunesSoundCloud, PodOmatic): Donald Trump has attempted to ease tensions within his party by endorsing House Speaker Paul Ryan, Senator John McCain and Senator Susan Collins. But do Republican candidates actually want the endorsement? Could Trump have inverse coattails, and drag other candidates down? Listen to Episode 7!

Correction: I referred to the Republican Senator from New Hampshire as Susan Collins. I meant to say Kelly Ayotte. Collins represents Maine!

→ 8 CommentsTags: 2016 Election

Can Third-Party Candidates Help Save The Republican Downticket?

August 10th, 2016, 8:36pm by Sam Wang


On Monday, the Princeton Election Consortium got its 10 millionth view since it became a WordPress site in 2008. Traffic in July 2016 was over 50 times larger than July 2012. Thank you, both old and new readers!

>>>

The Presidential cake is baking. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has increased in national polls to around 7%. Since January, the Clinton-over-Trump national margin has been 4.7 ± 2.3 % (average ± SD). The corresponding SD for January-August 2012, a re-election year, is 1.4%. Before that, Wlezien and Erikson’s data on Presidential campaigns from 1952 to 2008 show higher values for SD in all years, as high as 11.0% (1964). So 2016 is a very stable year so far. As much as 2012, it appears that voter attitudes are extremely well set. This fits with the fact that even after making increasingly incendiary statements, Trump’s support is still around 40%.

Clinton’s advantage in the Electoral College is smaller, as evidenced by a Meta-Margin of 3.7%, which is defined as how much current state poll margins would have to move in order to create an electoral tie. 3.7% may not sound like much, but Clinton’s Meta-Margin has not gone outside the 2.5%-4.5% range since May, when our calculation for 2016 began. All in all, measured in terms of public opinion, 2016 is a contender for the most stable Presidential race since World War II. Of course, we still have nearly three months for movement to occur.

A focus on downticket races is in the air. [Read more →]

→ 24 CommentsTags: 2016 Election · House · President · Senate